This morning, the New York Times/Siena College poll takes place in a place that might surprise you: New York City.
Overall, Kamala Harris leads Donald J. Trump 66% to 27%. While this is a significant advantage, it also represents a significant decline in Democratic support since 2020, when President Biden won the city 76-23.
If that happens, it would be the city’s worst performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1988.
While New York City is not a prominent figure in either campaign’s campaign, it could still be an important part of the story of this election.
A strong showing by Mr. Trump in the city could provide important clues about what is driving his rise nationally. The poll adds to the evidence that his votes are concentrated in areas where Republicans fared well in the midterm elections, suggesting the pandemic and subsequent turmoil have left a lasting mark on the electoral map. This could weaken Trump’s advantage. Electoral College.
As we’ve reported all cycle, Mr. Trump has made important gains among black, Hispanic, and young voters, but his gains vary state by state and even city by city. increasingly seen as different. A recent poll in nearby Philadelphia, for example, showed Harris doing well there (79-16).
