Find out who’s ahead and who’s trailing in the latest US presidential election polls.
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On November 5th, Americans headed to the polls to choose their next president in a tense and dramatic race.
In late July, incumbent US President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election after weeks of pressure following his dismal performance in the debates and mounting questions about his health. .
Biden instead endorsed the vice president, setting the stage for a matchup between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
So who is in the lead and who is expected to win?
The race is becoming increasingly close, according to the latest national polling averages compiled by Euronews.
Since October, support for Mr. Trump has soared in every battleground state in the United States.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling model shows Harris and Trump polling within one point of each other in five of the seven most important battleground states. Only Georgia and Arizona are outside the 1% margin, with Trump building a lead of nearly 2%, although both states tilted toward Joe Biden in 2020.
National opinion polls have also been consistently falling within the traditional 3% margin of error in recent weeks, indicating an intensification of competition.
Still, Harris has been consistently favored nationally in recent elections, including in polls conducted by TIPP, the nation’s most accurate pollster. The latest TIPP poll, released Wednesday, puts Harris with a 4-point lead over Trump nationally. TIPP is just one of two major polling companies that accurately predicts both the 2016 and 2020 election results.
Our Euronews polling average model currently has Harris leading nationally by 2.2%.
Looking back at past elections, it’s natural for Democrats to be nervous about how close the current race is.
When Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, Democrats held a 5-7 percentage point lead over Republicans at this point in mid-October.
Although Biden narrowly defeated Trump in 2020, the current president held a roughly 9-point lead over Trump at this stage of the election.
For those following the betting markets for predictions, Trump’s success in America’s battleground states is starting to shift the odds in his favor.
According to odds averages from RealClearPolitics, Mr. Trump has built his biggest advantage in the gambling market since July, when he was still riding the wave of Mr. Biden’s poor debate and uncertain candidacy.
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The current average RCP betting odds give Trump a 57.6% chance of winning the election.
When it comes to issues motivating voters, Trump currently leads in the most important area: the economy.
A Gallup Research poll conducted in late September found that more than half of American voters believe the economy is the most “extremely important” issue.
The Gallup poll also showed that Trump is seen as “better able to handle the economy” than Harris by a margin of 54 to 45 percentage points.
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Other top issues include “American democracy,” which Harris has an advantage in and is the most important issue for Democratic voters, and “foreign policy,” where Trump is seen as more competent by a 5 percentage point margin. is included.
Voting averages are updated regularly.
Additional Sources • Graphics: Kamuran Samar
