If you’re not familiar with New York, you might think the state is all blue. That’s not necessarily reality. The same thing happened at former President Donald Trump’s Long Island rally last month, where MAGA enthusiasm was on full display.
While New York City and other metropolitan areas are safely Democratic, there are 10 Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives representing different parts of the state. In 2022, New York Republicans gained three seats, giving Republicans a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
This year’s election could have a similar impact.
According to the New York Times, seven competitive U.S. House races are being held in New York. Two of the races are both rematches from 2022 and are considered toss-ups. There is no question that the Empire State will endorse Vice President Kamala Harris in November. But if Republican incumbents in these districts can hold onto their seats, New York could very well become the reason Republicans control the House of Representatives.
Republicans are trying to link their Democratic challenger to indicted New York Mayor Eric Adams and Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is facing record low approval ratings. Democrats, meanwhile, are focused on the opposition’s record on abortion access and public safety.
If Harris wins in November but Democrats cannot pass the House, it will be impossible to pass legislation such as her economic plan or codifying the provisions of Roe v. Wade. If Trump wins and Republicans retain control of the House, it could pave the way for disaster. Democrats are starting to treat New York like a battleground state, but that may not be enough to overcome voters’ fears about crime and immigration.
Historic Long Island rematch
In suburban Long Island, House Republican Anthony D’Esposito is in a rematch with Democrat Laura Guillen for the 4th Congressional District. In 2022, D’Esposito defeated Guillen by fewer than 10,000 votes.
D’Esposito is a former New York City police officer who takes a tough stance on crime and immigration. In the ad, he touts his law enforcement background and support from Nassau County law enforcement agencies. His reelection campaign website has a section dedicated to “women’s rights,” where he vows to vote against a nationwide abortion ban. He recently came under fire for putting his girlfriend and fiancée’s daughter on his payroll, according to the Times.
Gillen is a former Hempstead city supervisor who touts his track record of saving taxes during his time in that position. In one TV ad, she says she wants to secure the border and “defund the police.” She has been endorsed by former Representatives Carolyn McCarthy and Kathleen Rice.
Rematch with anti-immigration message and tax cuts
Republican Congressman Mark Molinaro will face Democrat Josh Riley for the second time in upstate New York’s 19th Congressional District. In 2022, Mr. Molinaro defeated Mr. Riley by just over 6,000 votes.
Mr. Molinaro, an establishment Republican, got his start in New York politics when he was elected mayor of Tivoli at the age of 19. Molinaro, known for his willingness to work across the aisle, recently began pushing the same anti-immigrant narrative we’ve heard from President Trump. In a new TV ad, he suggests Riley supports open borders and stokes fears about violent crime in New York.
Riley is an attorney who previously served as general counsel to Sen. Al Franken on the Senate Judiciary Committee. In television ads, he went after Molinaro’s abortion record and emphasized his commitment to middle-class tax cuts.
Rematch involving blackface, abortion rights and third parties
In the Hudson Valley, an incredibly close race could be influenced by a third-party candidate who is not campaigning. Republican Rep. Mike Lawler will again face Mondaire Jones in the 17th Congressional District. In 2022, Lawler won the seat by just over 2,000 votes.
Lawler touts bipartisan success in Congress. Like D’Esposito, he stands on the “common sense” abortion side, opposing national bans and defending in vitro fertilization. In television ads, he sought to link Jones to progressive Congressional Democrats known as “The Squad.”
A photo of Lawler wearing blackface as Michael Jackson while in college was recently obtained by the Times. Lawler said in a statement that the outfit was “a truly sincere compliment and a true homage to my musical heroes.”
Jones, the Democratic challenger, represented the district from 2021 until the end of 2022. In an ad focused on public safety, Jones’ campaign noted that Lawler previously voted to cut law enforcement spending by $1 billion.
Opposing the two mainstream party candidates is Working Families Party candidate Anthony Frascone. Mr. Flascone, a former Republican, is not actually campaigning. Because of this, the Working Families Party, a third party on the progressive left, is running an aggressive campaign against Frascone, spending $25,000 to convince voters to support Jones.
Emerson College predicts Mr. Lawler will win with 45% of the vote and Mr. Jones with 44%. Mr. Frascone received 3% of the vote. That means his entry on the ballot could significantly impact the outcome of the race.
On Friday, the Times switched the race to one dominated by Republicans.
These rematches will help decide Congress. Vote.
There are a few things that stand out to me about New York’s competitive House race. If you look at the news, most of these candidates’ TV ads, regardless of political party, center around public safety. The FBI says this shows just how fear-driven this election is, even though violent crime is down.
In states that are strongly Democratic or Republican, it can be easy to feel like your vote doesn’t matter. Rather, the rise of the Republican Party seen in New York in 2022 should indicate that every state will matter electorally.
While Harris is certain to win the state, she will not be able to accomplish some of her policies unless Democrats win a majority in the House.
Early voting begins Saturday in New York. Check your registration, plan to vote, and remember how even a crushing loss in a voting race can affect the future of our country.
Follow USA TODAY elections columnist Sara Pequeno on X (formerly Twitter): @sara__pequeno
