After Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in both the popular vote and the electoral vote in the 2020 presidential election, the results were controversial on many fronts.
President Trump and his ardent supporters, including former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, have accused election officials and claimed massive voter fraud in a campaign to overturn an election that became known as the “Big Lie.” and called for recounts in states with relatively close margins.
Then, on January 6, 2021, there was an attack on the U.S. Capitol in a final effort to overturn the election by force.
Trump is once again the 2024 Republican presidential candidate. Along with many supporters, including vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance, he has repeatedly made false claims about the 2020 election.
Trump’s campaign has also refused to commit to accepting the 2024 election results, leading to fears of new turmoil in the US if he is not declared the winner. .
If Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, wins in a landslide, there will be less chance of a serious challenge from mainstream Republicans.
About 70% of Republicans believe President Trump was robbed of victory in 2020 Image: picture Alliance/Consolidated News Photos
When it comes to accepting defeat, 72% of voters say Harris would accept the result if Trump won and conceded, according to a poll released Oct. 10 by the Washington-based Pew Research Center. replied that he recognized victory.
In the same poll, only 24% of people thought Trump would concede even if he lost the election.
But the campaign to reelect Trump as president began long before Election Day, and there have been major efforts to limit who can participate in this year’s election.
Since 2020, the nonpartisan Voting Rights Lab has documented more than 700 new election laws across the country. Some of these also make voting more accessible. That is not the case in many other cases, such as reducing polling places or adding ID requirements.
States pass bills to remove voting lists
Every state has a process to ensure that voter lists are accurate. Part of that includes cleaning up the list by removing the names of people who have died, moved or are no longer eligible to vote.
Since 2021, 32 states have introduced at least 148 bills that would limit the currency of voting lists, with 11 of them enacted, according to an analysis published in April by Voting Rights Lab.
The analysis details efforts by activist groups and the Republican National Committee to remove people from voter lists across the country, with lawsuits filed in numerous states to force election officials to remove voters.
Indiana passed a law earlier this year that requires election officials to identify noncitizens through records at the Department of Transportation, the state agency responsible for vehicle registration and driver’s licenses. The new regulations have no safeguards to prevent deportation for naturalized people.
Last year, North Carolina passed a bill that also covers non-citizen votes. The rule uses a list of people who are excused from jury service because they identify as non-citizens. But the removal process lacked proper checks, an investigation by the Voting Rights Institute found.
Additionally, the Republican National Committee has launched an initiative called “Protect the Vote.” The idea is to find and train 100,000 “poll watchers” to monitor polling places.
crosshair swing state
The Voting Rights Institute is particularly concerned about changes in the battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina.
In Georgia, new laws since 2020 have led to large-scale challenges to voter rolls, added ID requirements for mail-in voting, restricted the use of ballot drop boxes, and increased voter rejection rates. caused it.
North Carolina currently has some of the strictest rules in the country regarding mail-in voting. Under the new rules, mail-in voters will be required to attach a notary public signature or the signatures of two witnesses in addition to a copy of their ID.
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The state also gave more rights to partisan pollsters. Observers appointed by political parties can take notes, listen to conversations between voters and poll workers, and monitor setup and teardown procedures at polling places.
All of these new possibilities could potentially intimidate voters and complicate matters for local election officials overseeing the process.
“There is some truth to the fact that the Republican Party is working to elect supporters of the 2020 ‘Big Lie’ to key election positions in each state,” said Associate Professor of Public Policy and Administration at Penn State Harrisburg. Dan Mallinson said. Pennsylvania.
“Although they have not always been successful, there have also been efforts to force their supporters to pursue lower-level electoral positions,” he added.
What happens after November 5th?
All votes must be counted after the Nov. 5 election. In the past, these counts took days or even weeks for some polling places to complete.
The results must then be certified at the local and state levels before being sent to the Electoral College and U.S. Congress. The closer the outcome, the more difficult the challenge is likely to be.
“Former President Trump has already laid the rhetorical and legal groundwork for his campaign,” Mallinson said.
Hundreds of new regulations have been enacted nationwide. Some make voting easier. Most people don’t Image: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images
If Trump is declared the winner in key Electoral College states, Democrats could adopt some of the strategies used by the Trump campaign. “Just as Republicans have used rhetoric and lawsuits to question elections, it will make it easier for Democrats to do so, too,” Mallinson said.
There is almost 11 weeks between the election and the certification of electoral votes on January 6, 2025 for all of this to happen.
What is the worst case scenario?
Mallinson said chaos could ensue if states delay or refuse to certify the results. If states are unable to certify their results by the time their electors are counted, the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives will step in and make the decision.
He said that if the Electoral College is evenly divided, it will also go to the newly elected House of Representatives, and that “each state delegation will receive one vote and decide how to vote for the presidential candidate.” I have to,” he added.
Ultimately, the Supreme Court could have the final say, as it did in 2000 when it sided with George W. Bush in his battle with Al Gore.
Many people hope that things won’t go that far. A situation in which either side feels the election is unfair could make cross-party cooperation difficult and weaken the country.
Overall, 71% of voters think the 2024 campaign will be too negative, but only 19% say the campaign makes them proud of their country, according to a Pew Research Center survey. .
The lighthouse of democracy could go dark if voters lose trust in the system or the other side.
Editing: Milan Gagnon
