According to a recent update from the Cook Political Report, Democrats have little hope of retaining a majority in the U.S. Senate, but they are not completely hopeless.
Democrats control the Senate with a razor-thin 51 seats. The retirement of West Virginia independent Sen. Joe Manchin, who caucuses with Democrats, makes it almost certain that at least one seat will fall to Republicans in January.
Opinion polls show Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is leading Republican challenger Tim Sheehy by a wide margin in Montana, and with two weeks until Election Day, a change of government in the Senate is a reality. It is tinged with.
On Monday, the Cook Report redirected the Pennsylvania Senate race from incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey to Republican challenger Dave McCormick, “boosting” the race and worsening Democratic expectations. Ta.
“While many of the fundamentals may still slightly favor Mr. Casey, this race is now close enough that there are lean Democrats in Arizona and Nevada, which are clearly tougher races for Republicans.” It belongs more in the toss-up column,” Cook said. Jessica Taylor wrote in Monday’s update.
A new report offers small signs of hope for Democrats, including downgrading incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer’s lead over independent candidate Dan Osborn in Nebraska from “Republican-leaning” to “Republican-leaning.” It also included the possibility that
Osborne has said he would not caucus with either major party if elected to the Senate, but a loss to Fisher could jeopardize Republican control. If there is a tie in the caucus, either the vice president, Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, or Ohio Republican Sen. J.D. Vance will cast the tie-breaking vote in the next Congress.
“The most surprising contest of the year is definitely Nebraska,” Taylor wrote. “Two-term Sen. Deb Fischer had to resist a surprisingly strong challenge from independent union leader Dan Osborn.”
In a statement emailed to Newsweek on Tuesday, Osborne said the changes in the Cook report confirm what his campaign has “known all year.”
“Two weeks after Election Day, these changes in ratings show what we’ve known all year: Nebraskans are actually showing up for themselves in the Senate,” Osborne said. “They want a leader who can help them.”
“Our message of standing up for small businesses, family farms, and working families resonates with people across the political spectrum who are tired of Deb Fischer putting the interests of corporate donors over the needs of working families. “It resonates with Nebraskans who have crossed over,” he added.
Newsweek reached out to the Fisher camp for comment via email Tuesday night.
Polls of Nebraska races, most of which are sponsored by the candidates themselves, show widely varying results depending on the partisan leanings of the pollsters.
A recent Torchlight Strategies poll sponsored by Fisher’s campaign shows Republicans with a 7-point lead, while a Survey USA poll sponsored by Osborn’s campaign shows independents with a 6-point lead.
“I feel that the 50% results for Mr. Osborne in polls sponsored by his campaign are too rosy, and the truth likely lies somewhere between these polls,” Taylor wrote. “In other words, Fisher probably has a lead, but it’s much less than he should be.”
The latest nonpartisan poll of the Nebraska Senate race, conducted by Bulfinch Group and the Center for Independence, showed Mr. Osborn leading Mr. Fisher by 5 points among likely voters earlier this month.
This undated file photo shows a voter casting a ballot. Hopes for Democrats retaining their majority in the U.S. Senate seem slim, but a recent update from the Cook Political Report wasn’t the whole story…This undated file photo shows voters casting their votes. are. A recent update from the Cook Political Report wasn’t all good news for Republicans, but Democrats’ hopes of retaining the Senate majority appear slim. See more Drazen Zygic
Updated October 22, 2024, 8:36 PM ET: This article has been updated to include a statement from Dan Osborn.
