Congressman Pat Ryan of New York is embroiled in one of the nation’s tightest races. That’s why it was particularly noteworthy that Democrats recently traveled hours from their upstate districts to visit an unusually influential Hasidic rabbi.
And the next night, Rep. Mark Molinaro, a embattled Republican in a nearby district, went out of his way to name-check the Orthodox community on the debate stage.
And the following Sunday, another Republican on the front lines, Rep. Mike Lawler, took advantage of his Jewish holiday break to visit a kosher shopping center here in Mondsee and try on yarmulkes. They even posed for selfies.
Where candidates spend their precious campaign time says a lot about who they believe will decide the race. And in the final weeks before Election Day, three of the most at-risk lawmakers continue to show up in the same place: a rapidly expanding ultra-Orthodox Jewish enclave in New York’s Hudson Valley. .
The investment underscores how important Jewish voters across the religious spectrum have become in races around New York this year, as wars rage in the Middle East and rising anti-Semitism disrupts political alliances at home. It reflects the presence of people.
But in this highly polarized country, ultra-Orthodox voters in particular have emerged as the rarest swing voters. They are not particularly partisan and are fervent supporters of both former President Donald J. Trump and Democratic politicians, often acting as a bloc.
Depending on how votes are cast in November, some of the country’s most important House races could potentially tip in the other direction.
U.S. Rep. Mark Molinaro’s district includes a Hasidic outpost in Sullivan County that could deliver thousands of votes. Credit…Cindy Schultz, New York Times
“Here we have three seats within a few miles of each other that can essentially decide the chamber, and the Orthodox Jewish community could play a pivotal role in each seat,” state Rep. said Simcha Eichenstein, a Democratic power broker involved in the campaign.
The Jewish community is so important to this outcome that both major party leaders, Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana and Speaker Hakeem Jeffries of New York, recently visited their leadership. And both parties are considering summoning support from the former president in the 11th hour.
Orthodox Jewish voters are notoriously difficult to poll, so their influence is unlikely to show up in pre-election polls that show racial superiority or inferiority. Many denominations tend to wait for the Grand Rebbe’s endorsement several days before the election. (None of the candidates in the three elections are Jewish.)
The sizable vote of Orthodox Jews has long been a coveted constituency in New York City politics. But while key leaders like the one Mr. Ryan met are still based in Brooklyn, they have influence over increasingly influential northern outposts, where cheap land has led to a population boom, and governments are facing new challenges to solve.
Their influence could be most pronounced in Mr. Lawler’s 17th District, home to about 30,000 Orthodox voters.
Sean Patrick Maloney, a supporter of former President Bill Clinton, lost the 2022 Congressional election despite receiving 94 percent of the vote in New Square, a closed Hasidic enclave. Credit…Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Lawler won the balance of support in the state two years ago with a victory over former Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney. But his support is far from unanimous. For example, Maroney won 94% of the vote in New Square, a closed Hasidic neighborhood where Trump led by 99% and 2 votes, after former President Bill Clinton helped garner key local support. did. Many years ago.
This time, Lawler is expected to sweep the Orthodox vote after securing millions of dollars in federal infrastructure grants and establishing himself as a strong pro-Israel voice in Congress. Political strategists and community leaders from both parties predict he has a chance of winning 90 percent of the community, by a wide margin, with his opponent, Mondaire Jones, a Democrat. This is enough to offset the surge in support he expects from the public.
Dozens of miles north, Mr. Ryan is similarly aggressively courting voters in the 18th Ward, in Kiryas Joel, home to an offshoot of Brooklyn’s Satmar Jewish community that also votes in large numbers.
Trump won 98% of the vote there in 2020 and could score another big victory this year. But in 2022, Democrat Ryan won about 60% of the vote.
Orthodox strategists say Ryan helped secure a $2 million federal grant for drinking water facilities and prioritized securing communities after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, the Times Union reported. , expects profit margins to expand further this year. It would change the way the state accredits private religious schools known as local priority yeshivas.
Congressman Pat Ryan hopes to visit Hasidic rabbis and secure their support. Credit…Haiyun Zhang, New York Times
Republicans are not conceding. Mr Johnson is said to be in talks to meet with one of the community’s top leaders before voting day, with Mr Ryan’s opponent Alison Esposito questioning Mr Johnson’s commitment to defending Israel. It is showing. But a community member familiar with the matter said Ryan was already confident that both of Kiryas Joel’s rival Satmar factions would support him.
“Opposing an incumbent is like giving him a pink slip,” said Rabbi Moishe Indig, a Brooklyn-based Satmar leader. “You have to be a bad person to fire someone.”
The same principle could help Mr. Molinaro. His 19th District, which includes Hasidic outposts in Sullivan County, could garner him thousands of votes. His Democratic opponent, Josh Riley, has the backing of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, but has concluded that he would be better served by gaining support from other battleground states.
It remains unclear whether Mr. Jones adopts a similar view to Mr. Reilly or seeks to undermine Mr. Lawler’s clear advantage.
Jones, a former Democratic congressman, has represented much of the district and has taken steps to improve his reputation among Jewish voters. He broke with his former allies earlier this year to distance himself from the party’s anti-Israel left wing. Vice President Kamala Harris attacked Lawler for not condemning Trump’s remarks that “Jews” would be partly to blame if elected president.
But Mr. Jones has yet to actively campaign here, and after losing his seat last time, Mr. Jones’ decision to prematurely halt litigation efforts for non-emergency voters There are signs that voters remain dissatisfied.
“People were outraged that he abandoned the community at the end,” said David Roble, a Democratic strategist who worked on Maloney’s campaign. “And while he is trying to infiltrate, the Hasidic community has a long memory.”
Lawler (center) has prioritized campaigning in the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community, and in June, House Speaker Mike Johnson accompanied him on a similar campaign. Credit…Brian Anselm, New York Times
Mr. Lawlor, on the other hand, is everywhere. He visited New Square in June with Chairman Johnson, who called the yeshiva cause “an essential fight.” He also appeared at ribbon cuttings, bar mitzvahs and home-cooked meals, residents said.
“I’ve met Laura more times than I’ve met rabbis,” said Yossi Gestetner, the district’s communications executive and a registered Democrat.
These connections are already paying dividends. Earlier this year, Mr. Lawler’s campaign manager, Raffi Silverberg, relied on Orthodox voters to secure progressive voting spots for candidates engineered by Republicans in a ploy to siphon votes from Mr. Jones.
Mr. Lawler’s own popularity was evident last week when he was welcomed by Jewish voters who were shopping for Sukkot in Mondsee.
Shoppers crowded in to thank him for helping them secure passports and visas. At least two people approached her and told her her son had just registered to vote on their behalf.
One of them, Shmuley Deutsch, said she was used to politicians only appearing during election periods. He said he was so impressed with Mr. Lawler that he changed his registration from Democrat to Republican.
“He was the first Republican politician to really reach out to the Jewish community,” Deutsch said. “I think he changed the minds of a lot of people in the community this time.”
