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A billboard promoting Democrat Jon Tester’s bid for re-election to the Senate in November in Great Falls, Montana, on October 2. If Tester loses to political newcomer Tim Sheehy, Republicans will be poised to take control of the crucial Senate. The appointment gives them significant powers to form the country’s courts and federal cabinet. TAILYR IRVINE/The New York Times News Service
This week, a pickup truck drove through the streets of Poplar, Montena, pulling a trailer full of hay bales, picking up dozens of people and delivering them to the Medicine Bear Complex, home to the Fort Peck tribe.
Inside, many of those on the hay bales registered to vote and cast their votes.
If past experience is any guide, the overwhelming majority will focus on Jon Tester, a three-term Democratic senator from Montana. His seat could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. If he is re-elected in the Nov. 5 general election, Democrats will have a better chance of retaining control of the Senate. If he loses to political newcomer Tim Sheehy, Republicans will be poised to take control of the Senate. The Senate’s power to make important appointments gives it great power in shaping the nation’s courts and the federal cabinet.
The size of the stake is reflected in the size of the funds being poured into it. More than $225 million has already been spent on elections in a state with fewer than 1 million voters.
The hayride circling Poplar City represents Tester’s best chance to defend his seat against former Navy SEAL Sheehy, a supporter of President Donald Trump who advocates for ending illegal immigration, restricting abortion and supporting President Donald Trump. are. gun rights.
Native Americans make up approximately 6.5 percent of Montana’s population. In the last election, some Indigenous constituencies voted for Tester by a margin of 27-1. Democrats have poured some of their state spending into securing as many votes as possible. In some areas, activists are holding community feeds where people can eat Indian tacos and vote absentee. Lawyers are fighting to add polling places to the reservation.
And political strategists crunching the numbers are calculating scenarios in which the outcome of key races depends on the votes of Assiniboine, Sioux, Blackfeet and other indigenous peoples in the state.
“I don’t think there’s ever been an effort like this in Montana for Native American voting,” said Tom Rogers, a Blackfeet attorney who has fought to protect voting rights in Montana. spoke.
Opinion polls show a glimmer of hope for a Democratic victory. Mr. Sheehy has a 7-8 point lead. Even with historic Native American turnout, if current numbers hold, it will be difficult for Republican candidates to surpass their support.
But Rogers said pollsters have traditionally had difficulty assessing the opinions of people living on reservations. He believes the polls underestimate Tester’s support among Indigenous people.
Could a Native American elect a Senate seat in Montana?
“That’s exactly right,” he said.
Such an outcome would have special poetic resonance, he said, because Mr. Sheehy has made controversial statements about Montana Native Americans. He said the candidate was “drunk at 8 a.m.” and intended to throw a Coors Light can to show his displeasure. Mr. Sheehy later said those comments were “insensitive” but refused to apologize.
“You don’t have to go to Birmingham, Alabama or Jackson, Mississippi to experience blatant racism,” Rogers said. “You can be in the great state of Montana right away.”
Mr. Sheehy’s comments have already led to a surge in Native American voter registration, said Patrick Yawaki, whose company Red Medicine LLC works under contract with the Democratic Party to increase Native American voter turnout.
He says Montana still sometimes feels like a “cowboys-versus-Indians environment,” but now the battle is just starting at the voting booth.
But Montana is also in the midst of changes that will change the state’s demographic makeup as part of a broader redrawing of the U.S. population map accelerated by COVID-19.
From 2009 to 2023, Montana ranked among the 15 fastest growing states in the country. In the western region that makes up Montana’s first congressional district (including Bozeman and other mountain cities that have seen significant growth), nearly a quarter of all voters this year live in the state and 10 Less than a year old.
An analysis by L2, a Washington state-based election data firm, found that over the past 15 years, more than three Republicans have moved to Montana for every two Democrats. The state’s age group is also aging.
Montana has always been a conservative state. Mr. Tester has carved out a niche for himself through his work and his unique background (unusual among senior American politicians, he still farms on weekends). However, his victory was close. Demographic changes are shifting the balance away from him.
“We are being touted by real estate agents as one of the last states with freedom.” “If you want to avoid the constraints of woke bureaucracy, move to Montana,” says one prominent Montana state official. said David Hunter, a Democrat who has led several gubernatorial races.
At the same time, the vast amount of money flowing through the American political system is narrowing the scope of debate. Voters are being bombarded with messages from national political action groups. Local concerns no longer have the influence they once had.
In the past, a successful politician in Montana “had to be pretty much an independent first and then a party member. That’s changing quite a bit,” said Brian Schweitzer, governor of Montana from 2005 to 2013. said Democratic political strategist Eric Stern, who served as campaign director.
“Now, for me, all politics is national. Unless there is some reason why there are major exceptions.”
What that means, he said, is that Mr. Tester is the underdog.
Still, he said the Indigenous vote “could be a game changer” if the election were closer than current polls suggest.
For a small group of lawyers and activists trying to increase the indigenous vote, that possibility provides even more incentive to resist what they see as unwarranted interference.
For example, a hayride allowed voters to deliver voters to satellite registration and voting offices. The office had just opened in Poplar after a lawsuit was filed to give Indigenous communities equal voting rights.
But even as the potential electoral significance of the Native American vote continues to grow, ensuring access remains difficult, said a consultant with the Native American voting rights advocacy group Four Directions. said attorney Brett Healy.
“On most reservations in Montana, you have to plan your voting much more carefully than white people,” he says.
