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As the second and final debate for an open U.S. Senate seat had just concluded on Oct. 16, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin recalled half-jokingly pleading with her rival. “Why don’t you knock me out and wake me up on election day and tell me what the results will be?”
That sense of fatigue has taken hold here in Michigan, among voters and candidates alike. Michigan is a battleground state in the presidential race and home to one of the few U.S. Senate races where voting is legally held.
A year ago, some saw the disciplined Slotkin as the clear favorite to take over the Senate seat held since 2001 by fellow Democrat Debbie Stabenow. But as the polls tighten, both Ms. Slotkin and her Republican opponent, former Rep. Mike Rogers, say they believe their fates and those of their party’s standard-bearer are not quite in sync. I am clearly aware that this is a possibility.
“If it weren’t for split-vote voters, I wouldn’t be here. In 2020, I won the district and Donald Trump won the district, so I’m here. , just for Trump and Slotkin voters,” Ms. Slotkin told me Saturday afternoon after speaking at a rally headlined by Ms. Harris in Mexicantown, a Detroit suburb. And in a race that could be contested by thousands of votes, Slotkin is working with a clear mandate to do what it takes to cross the finish line. If Harris also happens to get there, Slotkin considers that an added bonus.
“There are still a lot of people who aren’t sure about the ticket cap,” Slotkin said.
This is similar pragmatism for Rogers, who seeks Trump’s support and seeks to exploit the MAGA world given there are few better options. “Yeah, listen, I’m not running Donald Trump’s campaign. I’m running Mike Rogers’ campaign for U.S. Senate,” he said on January 6, 2021. He spoke to NBC News this month as he denounced his disagreements with President Trump after the riot at the Capitol.
That’s not the only thing the two Senate candidates have in common. The Michigan race is a rare matchup between two senators with concrete voting records, but since neither senator has ever held the same office, it is difficult to draw a direct comparison. Mr. Rogers served seven terms in the House of Representatives, including a run as chairman of the Intelligence Committee, and resigned in 2016 just before President Trump’s sweeping takeover of the Republican Party.
They both also know about discipline and cold calculations. Mr. Slotkin is a former CIA analyst who served in Iraq and was a former Pentagon official under George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Rogers is a former FBI agent.
The Michigan Senate race has always been one of those dam-breaking races for Democrats, who saw Slotkin as a safe bet as their candidate. But as 2024 approaches, tensions are mounting. The spine of the Democratic establishment was so shaky that in July, Slotkin criticized Biden for not passing the torch before he handed it over and avoided Biden when he visited the state that month. Ta. (Her office says she was in Washington to vote.) But Slotkin hasn’t quite pushed herself to the top of the race since Biden resigned, paving the way for Harris. Although he is careful about this, he is pleased to be campaigning with Harris.
“It’s going to be a tough race. You can feel it on the field,” Slotkin told me. “And I’ve been in some of the most conservative parts of the state, so that’s my strength.”
Both Senate candidates make appearances when presidential candidates are in town, but Mr. Rogers has focused more on directly targeting voters than on events or interviews. (Campaign spokespeople even declined to share a public schedule beyond the stops with President Trump.) And Republican groups are on track to spend $96 million on broadcast and cable advertising in the state. That’s close to the Democratic Party’s $88 million.
Former Congressman Mike Rogers speaks at a Trump campaign rally in Detroit on October 18, 2024. Winn McNamee—Getty Images
For Rogers, outside help is welcome. Rogers could not find a ready-to-use turnkey machine. The former Republican advantage in Michigan disappeared with the rise of Gretchen Whitmer. Over time, Republicans lost the governorship, a supermajority in the state Senate, and a majority in the state House of Representatives. The last state party chair was an unparalleled disrupter, accumulating debt and ultimately refusing to accept that other leaders of the party chose to remove her from power.
“This is not the Michigan Republican Party that Mike Rogers enjoyed when he was president,” says one Republican strategist sympathetic to institutional weaknesses that are far from Rogers’ fault.
Left with few better options, Mr. Rogers has since joined Mr. Trump’s operations in the state, participating in a business roundtable with the former president on Friday and later attending a rally in Detroit. .
“We cannot continue to have Harris in office for another four years,” Rogers said at a rally before Trump took the stage. “You know how we would change this? We will elect Donald J. Trump on November 5th.”
President Trump teased that Rodgers would appear on stage like other state Senate candidates, but the cameo never materialized. Instead, retired boxer Tommy “The Hitman” Hearns and rapper Trick Trick took to the stage.
From the start, Slotkin is going to be a tough guy to beat. She is a close ally of Whitmer, a Democratic Party run by the governor in a rare state that survives. And on Capitol Hill, even Slotkins’ critics acknowledge that she runs an efficient operation to help voters, one of Paul’s most underrated allies at home. This is one way to stay.
But Slotkin has one particularly serious weakness at Michigan State. That’s because she supports a Biden administration-era rule that requires two-thirds of new cars to be zero-emission vehicles by 2032. The issue led Mr. Rogers to accuse opponents of unfairly favoring electric cars. , takes less time and fewer parts to manufacture.
“Our auto industry is ruined,” Mr. Rogers told Mr. Slotkin in a debate that ended with a joking request to be rendered unconscious. “You’re promoting Chinese technology in America.”
Mr. Slotkin refused to vote on a bill introduced by House Republicans to roll back the rule — a bill that would be largely a Republican effort to keep Democrats on track, since it won’t get any votes in the Senate anyway. It was a ploy to keep manufacturing strong — and that will remain the case, regardless of what powers the final product. “I don’t care what you drive, I want to build them,” Slotkin said.
Ms. Slotkin hopes Mr. Rogers will slowly end the residency’s mini-scandal. Rogers had moved to Florida, but returned to Michigan to buy, tear down and build a lake house. But at the time of the primary, it wasn’t suitable for residence, and it’s unclear whether it will count as his address for voting this fall. Republicans have dismissed this as a ploy by his opponents that has nothing to do with his policy agenda.
Voters from all walks of life recognize the jump-ball nature of this race. Presidential campaigns take a lot of effort, but statistically, Senate races are a more advantageous strategy for Democrats.
“I’m nervously optimistic,” says Randy Ramos, a 65-year-old retiree from Lake Orion, Michigan. He was sitting in the front row of Slotkin’s event Friday morning, intending to tell his neighbors that Slotkin was going through this. Not your typical Democrat. “She makes the right choices. She is far from an extremist,” Ramos said.
A few hours later, a similar, vague sense of hope resonated with Doug Hutchinson, 65, a retired General Motors employee who calls Macomb Township home. He and his wife, Teresa, were waiting for VIP access to a Trump rally in downtown Detroit. He and Theresa have been instrumental in coordinating the state’s Catholic voter bloc, which polls show is evenly divided along party lines and makes up about a quarter of all adults. In the state.
“We’re going to vote for a straight Republican, so I think that means Mike Rogers,” Hutchinson said while wearing a Trump shirt and holding a pile of other merchandise. “I don’t know much about him, but I’m focused on Trump. If Trump wins this state by 10 points, that might be enough for Rogers.”
Opinion polls show Harris and Trump tied, but Slotkin leads Rodgers by about 4 points. Trump’s rhetoric may be imaginary at this point, but insiders on the ground in Michigan know this reality. At this point in 2016, two weeks before Election Day, Hillary Clinton had an eight-point lead over Trump. At the time of actual vote counting, Clinton lost by a one-third of a point.
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