. One of the most anticipated national elections is the US presidential election on November 5th. While the predictability of primaries was initially expected to result in a relatively unspectacular campaign season, recent events have shattered this expectation and resulted in a campaign season with far greater consequences than originally anticipated. .
The rematch that never happened
Democratic President Joe Biden has announced his intention to run for re-election in April 2023. Although Joe Biden’s global reputation is generally high compared to other world leaders, Biden has consistently recorded low approval ratings in the United States since taking office. Forced to accept that he was unlikely to win in November, Biden announced on July 21 that he would end his bid for re-election. With just over three months until Election Day, President Biden’s decision not to run for a second term turns what was supposed to be a rematch of the two 2020 candidates into an uncertain race. It became. Many Democrats, including President Biden himself, have expressed support for Vice President Kamala Harris’ candidacy. Harris won the required number of delegates for the nomination early in the campaign, but was officially nominated as the Democratic Party’s nominee at the Democratic National Convention, which was held from August 19th to 22nd. In early August, Harris announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. November election.
At the Republican National Convention, Donald Trump was officially approved as the Republican presidential candidate and J.D. Vance was officially approved as the vice presidential candidate. A few days ago, Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt during a rally, the first assassination attempt on a president in the United States since Ronald Reagan in 1981. Former President Trump has received an outpouring of support since the rally and has widened his lead in recent polls.
President Trump faces numerous legal challenges, including election eligibility issues, two House impeachments, nearly 100 criminal charges related to election interference, attempts to overturn the 2020 election results, and falsifying records. facing challenges. On May 30, 2024, he was convicted of 34 felonies for falsifying business records in connection with a 2016 sex scandal. Despite being the first U.S. president to be convicted of a felony, he remains eligible for re-election and remains a strong supporter of the Republican Party, with many believing the charges were politically motivated. It is considered a thing. In late June, the Supreme Court ruled that presidents have absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for acts of official conduct, complicating President Trump’s federal election interference lawsuit and raising questions about the possibility of future presidential misconduct. Concerns are growing.
The rise of independent voters
Just weeks before the 2024 election, polls in battleground states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin show Donald Trump narrowly leading in five of the seven battleground states. It was shown that A widespread lack of enthusiasm for the two leading presidential candidates has sparked interest in alternatives. This sentiment resulted in a record share of independent voters, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with the traditional two-party system. Prominent independent candidates include former Green Party member Cornel West and former Democratic candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., both of whom have garnered significant attention and support.
Support for independent candidates varies greatly by generation. More than half of Gen Z and Millennials now identify as independent, indicating a significant shift in political alignment among young voters. Furthermore, more than 40 percent of these young voters are considering voting for an independent candidate in the upcoming election, reflecting widespread disillusionment with the established political system and desire for other options in the political arena. This suggests a trend.
What issues do voters care about?
Jobs have become a top political issue for American voters, and job creation is emphasized in debates regarding the president and Congress. Some believe that the number of jobs a president creates is directly related to his success as president. Additionally, policies such as tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure investment are important to voters because they affect the business environment, job creation, and unemployment. The U.S. economy is strengthening, but many Americans are not seeing it in their daily lives. As the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to rise across the country, and with it the cost of living, many Americans are struggling to make ends meet.
Other important economic indicators for voters are taxes and government spending. Republicans would like to cut government spending on programs like Social Security and Medicare, while Democrats are likely to advocate raising taxes on the wealthiest individuals to cover the budget deficit. Large amounts of debt have accumulated under presidents of both parties, even though both parties tend to blame each other for fiscal problems affecting the country.
Abortion remains controversial across the United States and has secured its place as a powerful campaign tool heading into 2024. In 2022, the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade, giving states the power to completely ban abortion if they wish. The ruling has been a mobilizing force for voters and is likely to remain a decisive issue throughout the election. Additionally, the ongoing debate about gun ownership has expanded in the wake of mass shootings across the United States, with nearly twice as many Democrats as Republicans calling for stricter gun laws. Other partisan issues include climate change and the environment, health care access, LGBTQ rights, and immigration. Immigration remains one of the longest-running debates in the United States. At the same time that support for restrictive immigration is increasing among Republicans, support for open immigration is increasing among Democrats. Increasing polarization between the two parties is hampering productive reforms and increasing dissatisfaction from all sides.
Trust in an age of misinformation
Due to declining trust in the government and its institutions, a significant number of Republicans refused to recognize the results of the 2020 election. As a result, Trump supporters stormed the Capitol during the certification of the election results on January 6, 2021. Trump’s accountability for the Capitol attack remains a politically polarized debate, with many convinced that his role in the incident should disqualify him from running for president. Nearly one-third of voters believe the 2020 election included a high level of voter fraud, but their confidence in the 2024 election results remains uncertain.
Additionally, the rise of partisan media on both ends of the political spectrum has increased concerns about disinformation and fake news, and advances in artificial intelligence have exacerbated concerns. As of 2023, only about 10% of U.S. Republicans trust the media to report the news completely, accurately, and fairly, compared to 68% of Democrats. Republican and Democratic voters trust different political news sources, making it increasingly difficult to ensure accurate information, build trust, and bridge political gaps.
This text provides general information. Statista assumes no responsibility for the completeness or accuracy of the information provided. Due to different update cycles, statistics may show more recent data than the data referenced in the text.
