The power of the next U.S. president heavily depends on which party has the majority in Congress. Orange County could decide whether Republicans can hold on to the House of Representatives.
The Californian sun beats down through palm fronds onto the sidewalk where Sandra Robbie and Steve Lawrence are standing side by side. The two of them catch the attention of many on the main street of Tustin, a city in the heart of Orange County: Numerous drivers honk their horns, some give them a thumbs-up, others the middle finger.
«The good thing is that you never know which one of us they mean,» says Lawrence – a hint of a belly, clean-shaven, his gray hair combed back. Right next to each other, Lawrence and Robbie have put up posters for «Trump 2024» and «Harris-Walz» and sell merchandise for the respective presidential candidates.
Donald Trump merchandise is good business: salesman Steve Lawrence in Santa Ana, California.
Various merchandise for Donald Trump.
The «Make America Great Again» hats are selling the best, says the 64-year-old, adjusting a pile of his merchandise. «People want what Trump is wearing.» Since the assassination attempt in July, flags saying «Fuck your feelings» have also been a hit, he adds. «Many used to be secret Trump fans. Now they want to show their loyalty openly.»
Lawrence used to work in the woodworking industry, but now that he is retired, he earns some extra income by selling fan articles. Above all, however, he wants to «give back to Trump and support him.» Of course, he and Sandra Robbie disagree politically, he says, but they are still friends. «Sometimes I bring her pizza and she brings me rugelach,» a Jewish pastry.
Sandra Robbie, 66, has also spread out her campaign merchandise: Harris pins, tank tops with coconut trees printed on them, baseball caps adorned with Converse sneakers – the Democratic candidate’s trademark. She is currently selling an elderly lady a T-shirt with a colorful «Kamala» print. The customer is thrilled that Robbie is here: «The fact that Democrats are so open here in Orange County – that wouldn’t have happened back in the day. It’s really great.»
T-shirts featuring prints of Harris’ favorite Converse sneakers are selling very well at Sandra Robbie’s stand.
Republicans have to hold on to their seats
Orange County is one of the most hotly contested places in this election year. No matter who wins the presidential election, the balance of power in Washington will depend on which party holds the majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives. The latter is responsible for key tasks such as parliamentary oversight or the opening of impeachment proceedings. And should both candidates receive the same number of electoral votes – the first and only time this happened was in 1800 – the House of Representatives would even decide the presidential election.
Republicans currently hold eight seats more than Democrats in the larger chamber of Congress – one of the slimmest majorities in decades. In the vast majority of congressional districts, it is clear from the outset which party will win, explains Mark Baldassare from the Public Policy Institute of California, a think tank. He explains that only a handful of races are actually open and will decide the majority in the House of Representatives. «Ultimately, it comes down to a few seats in California and New York.»
Here in Orange County in particular – a district with just over 3 million inhabitants in Southern California – four congressional seats are considered toss-ups, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Two of them are currently in Republican hands, one is held by a Democrat and one is open because the Democratic incumbent is not running again. If Republicans want to defend their majority, they must hold or increase their seats in Orange County. «The race for the White House goes through California,» concludes the Cook Political Report.
OC, the home of Richard Nixon
The fact that these seats are even contested is a sensation in itself. This is because OC, as the locals call it, has long been a conservative stronghold. It is the birthplace of Richard Nixon. Barry Goldwater was celebrated, and Ronald Reagan is buried here. What San Francisco is to America’s hippies, Orange County has long been to conservatives. «Orange County is where the good Republicans go before they die,» Reagan once said. Even as the rest of California became increasingly left-leaning in the late 1990s, Orange County remained conservative; a red rock in a blue sea.
Republican Congresswoman Michelle Steel is hoping for reelection in the Westminster district.
But lightning struck for the first time in 2016. Hillary Rodham Clinton was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win in Orange County in 80 years. The next thunderbolt followed in 2018: Democrats won all congressional seats in the district. Republicans did not take this without a fight: In 2020 they ramped up their campaign and won back two seats. Since then, Orange County has been the embodiment of a «swing county» – hotly contested and not clearly belonging to either party.
Orange County sends out a signal to the rest of the country, says political scientist Mark Baldassare. «For the future of both parties, it is important to observe what happens in Southern California – and how the electorate there is changing.»
Knocking on doors – and praying
Those who want to understand what happened to the former conservative stronghold have to get in the car. Driving south from left-leaning, liberal Los Angeles along the Pacific coast feels like traveling to another planet in the span of just an hour. Soon after crossing the San Gabriel River, there are stars and stripes everywhere. Trump flags fly in manicured front gardens. Porsches and Ferraris speed down the highway.
Here, California is white, conservative and wealthy. Orange County is one of the richest regions in the country, with a median income of $110,000, 16% above the Californian average.
This is particularly evident in the city of Newport Beach. Countless luxury yachts are moored here, sports car dealers and gourmet restaurants are lined up side by side. And it’s Trump country, there’s no doubt about it: A «Boaters for Trump» fundraiser is planned for the coming days.
The Republican Party office along Highway 1 in the coastal city of Newport Beach.
The more bizarre the Trump merchandise, the better it sells: socks with fake hair.
Opposite the harbor, directly on Highway 1, is the headquarters of the local Republican Party – hard to miss thanks to the huge Trump flag in front of it. The Republican candidate greets visitors right at the entrance, in the form of a life-size cardboard figure giving two thumbs-up – ideal selfie material. White-haired ladies scurry around the room like busy worker bees, assembling advertising signs for local congressional candidate Scott Baugh and selling pink MAGA hats for $20. A customer points to Trump socks with fake hair attached to them and says, «My husband has something like that as a protective cover for his golf clubs.»
Bill Dunlap is sitting at one of the tables in the office – a smartwatch on his wrist, «Yes and Amen» written on his cap. Together with other volunteers, the 75-year-old comes here every Wednesday evening to pray for Republican candidate Scott Baugh.
Volunteer Bill Dunlap.
NZZ
But now the election campaign has entered its hot phase, he wants to do more. «The Democrats have been able to make up ground in Orange County because we Republicans have gotten too comfortable,» he says. They need to get better at the «ground game,» he says: calling voters, knocking on doors, getting them excited about the Republicans. In front of Dunlap is a list with names and numbers of nonparty voters, next to it a piece of paper with key arguments. He will spend the next hour on the phone.
OC is becoming more diverse and educated
Newport Beach is the old Orange County: demographically and politically uniform. However, demographic change has transformed OC: The population has grown from 2.4 million to 3.1 million since 1990, largely thanks to Hispanic and Asian migrants. During the same period, the proportion of white residents fell from two-thirds to one-third.
Politically, this has two implications, explains political scientist Jon Gould of the University of California, Irvine, whose faculty regularly conducts studies on Orange County.
First, many Latinos in the area are now entitled to vote, and they tend to vote Democratic. Second, the level of education in Orange County has risen in recent years, says Gould. «Many voters with a university degree are suspicious of Trump, however, which is why they are increasingly turning away from the Republican Party.» This is partly due to the fact that Trump denies human-made climate change and wants to award new drilling rights in the Pacific, Gould argues. In a county with 70 kilometers of coastline, such attitudes are unpopular.
Newport Beach is one of the most affluent cities in California.
If one leaves the Pacific coast behind and drives a good 20 minutes inland, this new Orange County quickly becomes visible. In Santa Ana, the stores have Spanish signs, salsa music blares through the streets, and traders sell tamales, a dish made from corn dough. Santa Ana is «the face of a new California» – younger, less white, more educated, wrote the New York Times. Eight out of 10 residents are Hispanic.
However, Latinos are only part of the change. In the northwest of Santa Ana, Buddhist temples suddenly begin to line the cityscape. There are street signs with Vietnamese script on them and houses with curved red tiled roofs. The city of Westminster is one of the largest Vietnamese enclaves in the U.S., sometimes nicknamed «Little Saigon.»
The heart of the community is a shopping mall where people can buy banh mi sandwiches, straw hats and ao dais, Vietnam’s traditional long-sleeved robes. On the first floor, above an Asian supermarket, there is something unexpected, however: a community center of the Republican Party. «Chao Mung» – welcome – is written on the front door in Vietnamese, with the American flag printed next to it. There is not a Trump flag in sight.
Republicans are also defending their majority in the House of Representatives in Little Saigon. Visitors are enticed with free yoga classes and music lessons, plus a dash of election campaigning: In one corner, advertising posters are piled up for Republican Congresswoman Michelle Steel, who fears for her seat. Experts consider the race a tossup.
Many Vietnamese Americans do not vote
The Vietnamese population is technically a treasure trove for the Republican Party, explains political scientist Gould: Many of them came to the U.S. in the wake of the Vietnam War and hold anti-communist beliefs. But this treasure is difficult to unearth because many people don’t vote, he adds. With the new electoral office, Republicans tried to change that, «but it might be too little, too late,» Gould says.
The Vietnamese community in Orange County is actually pro-Republican, but many don’t vote.
This becomes apparent during a conversation in a fast-food restaurant in the mall. The menu includes papaya salad, chicken feet and beef with lemon grass. One of the customers is 34-year-old Nancy, who works as a doctor and is out shopping with her mother. Her mother doesn’t speak English, so Nancy tells us that her parents came to California around 40 years ago during the Vietnam War. She and her three siblings were born here. The family soon settled in Little Saigon, and her parents still watch the news on the Vietnamese channels that have established themselves in the diaspora.
Her parents are politically conservative, says Nancy, mainly because they oppose China. Congresswoman Michelle Steel’s campaigners regularly knock on their door, she tells us. «But my parents aren’t the voting type,» says Nancy. They have never voted before. Her two older brothers don’t vote either, Nancy explains. «They’re just not interested in politics.»
Possible advantage for Democrats
When asked about her own opinion, Nancy quietly says: «I feel closer to the Democrats,» and then quickly looks around to see if anyone heard. «I wouldn’t normally say that out loud.»
The Vietnamese community is becoming more educated with each generation and is increasingly moving toward the political center, according to Gould’s surveys. «Especially with younger voters, Republicans aren’t doing enough to get them on their side – and to make sure they actually go out and vote,» he says.
In the race for the House of Representatives, the fact that Kamala Harris, a native Californian, is standing for election could ultimately be a decisive advantage for the Democrats, Gould thinks. It could motivate many voters to actually go to the polls – and a higher turnout could make or break tight races in Orange County.
In the port of Newport Beach, Trump supporters regularly organize fundraising events like «Boaters for Trump.»
NZZ live event: Harris vs. Trump – Showdown for the White House
The U.S. elections have rarely been this tumultuous. While former President Donald Trump is more polarizing than any candidate before him, Vice President Kamala Harris, the replacement for the aging Joe Biden, lacks a clear political profile.
Thursday, Oct. 30, 2024, 6:30 p.m., NZZ Foyer, Zurich, and online
Tickets and further information can be found here.
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